F0ul Thoughts

Mild mannered on the outside, Free thinker on the inside

Economics 101 – What is it really all about?

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I have a great interest in Money! I also hate rules. Put these two things together, and you end up with one view of economics – the Free Market Model.

The alternative is the love of rules and money. That gives you Closed Market Economics.

They are both extremes which don’t really work.

Now that you know where I stand, lets look at things in more detail.

Economics is the study of the flow of money, and by definition, how to control that flow and its effects. When people do this, they don’t really have time to study reality, so they work with theory or models. This is much easier because they control the models! 🙂

Free Market economics is where everything can be sold, and anyone can do it. You can’t cheat people, but everything else is legal.

Closed Market is where the government plans who can sell what to whom.
You can’t cheat the rules or people.

The reality is that neither have ever existed in its entirety, although there are examples of both extremes. North Korea (Closed) and Hong Kong (Free) are often mentioned.

The reality is that the vast majority of countries have a kind of mix, commonly called Corporatism. This is where various interested bodies of people come together to lobby the government for rules for its industry.

The end result is where some people can sell anything to some people, while others have to follow the rules set by the government of what they can sell to whom.

This is why the vast majority of economists are always wrong because they don’t acknowledge this in their models. However, on a very focused scale, such as within an industry (be it regulated or not) they will always be able to find examples of what they claim – so they still get paid! 😉

Personally, I like the free market – I just wish we had one! 😉

Written by f0ul

March 11, 2011 at 11:23 am

Posted in economics

Why Being Stupid is Best!

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How is your intelligence? Would you consider yourself cleverer than average? Do you think your life is better because of your brain power?

Let me come clean – I have a high IQ. Not quite genius, but damn close! I have what is called a pattern recognition intelligence. I see connections to things before other people do. I watch a TV show, and know who the killer is within 5-10 minutes of an hour show!

So, is that why is it better to be stupid?

No! It’s because decisions are simpler. Only two choices, right for you, or wrong for you?

For instance, take a politically based situation. whatever your position, you will not be aware of ALL the facts. Either you will be aware of the situation and how it effects you, or you will be aware of why a decision was made.

However, what you don’t know is how that decision could effect someone else’s decision on a seemingly unrelated issue.

As an example, People are complaining about the cost of Petrol. What do you do?

If the cost of fuel duty was lowered, people would be happy, but food inflation would go up, rather than down. The reason being that with a lower price, fuel would lead to more cash in the economy, which would lead to more buying of goods. People would then stop being happy.

While foods would become cheaper because there wasn’t as much fuel cost to recover, the increased demand would force the prices up anyway! Then there is the effect of more fuel being sold, because it was cheaper. Very soon, the amount of fuel needed by the refiners would go up, leading to more oil being bought, which would increase the cost of oil – leading to more expensive fuel at the pump!

While the most unhappy people would now campaign for you to lower the duty again – all it would do is to repeat this cycle. The other thing to realise is that people buy fuel whatever it costs – its why there is tax on it in the first place!

The point is that when you are stupid, you either give up thinking of all these extra factors, or you think that there is a way to collect every single factor and monitor it. It comes down to the Chaos theory which basically said that every intervention will have an effect which will become more pronounced as time moves on.

The simplest way to understand that taking a decision to do nothing is as powerful as a decision to do something!

However, when you are stupid, you will decide to do something because you think that doing nothing means not having an effect.

The end result will still not be what you were hoping for, but it will include the effect of other people making decisions based on your decision.

Complex? Not really – but it makes you realise how insignificant you really are in the grand scheme of things. Which is why very clever people tend not to become great leaders. They may well advise great leaders, but to convince people of something, you can’t know the real truth – it will only depress you! 😉

Stupid people use luck, which is the facility where you don’t think too hard. If everything works out well for you – that was your input. If things go wrong, it was bad luck, and beyond your control! Sound familiar? Every politician since the birth of time has used that technique! 😉

Even 1 to 1 relationships are better when you are stupid. There is none of this looking for motives and incentives! People are always looking for what is in it for them. Its how they make decisions. However, this doesn’t mean people are selfish. Only a stupid person would think that! 😉

People will be happy with a decision which makes someone else happy – if having that person happy, makes the first person happy. Self interest packaged as selflessness – or love, or whatever other description makes you happy! 😉

If you are stupid, you don’t think of these things, just about the simple decision to be made – what is in it for me? … and that really is the only question worth asking 😉

Does any of this make sense to you? Anyone agree? Anyone find they think the same way?
Would love to hear from you!

Written by f0ul

March 1, 2011 at 10:23 am

Posted in Culture

Wikileaks – you can sometimes fool all the people …!

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Wikileaks, managed by its egotistical editor, Julian Assange, has been in the news a lot the past few months.  For those of you living a life devoid of any news, here is a quick summary:

Wikileaks is a site which publishes leaks of official documents.  Its latest exclusive was receiving 250,000 US embassy documents, and promising to publish them. This has lead to calls from various public figures of either support or condemnation! The latest happenings are that the Swedish Government have asked the UK government to hold Assange, due to an allegation of rape which has yet to be heard.

Actually, that last paragraph is near enough

everything that has happened – every thing else that has been written is conjecture!

Wikileaks have only actually published less that 2000 documents to date – most of which were already in the public domain, in one form or another.  At the rate they are publishing, it will take 8 years before we find out everything that has been stolen. The documents are being edited prior to publishing by a collection of professional journalists – to ensure nothing dangerous is published. In most cases, its just a case of censoring personal details.

Now, add an element of fantasy, wishful thinking, anti-government conspiracy theories, religious idolising and lazy reporting, and what do you get?

Assange, the Messiah, that the US government are planning to assassinate.

The reality is much grubbier.

Assange is quickly making sure that he is able to retire a rich man.  He has already sold his memoirs.  There has been no mention of the amount, but its in the millions.  He will need to do the book tour, which will net in a couple more quid.  This will lead to the lecture tour – which will net in a good $50k a talk.  By the time all the documents have been published (which I doubt will ever happen) he will have earned enough to retire!

However, if this information was to be leaked – it could ruin a damn fine story (did I mention the film rights?) – so let’s just say, Julian isn’t the Messiah, he’s just a very naughty boy!

🙂

Written by f0ul

December 22, 2010 at 10:49 pm

Posted in celebrity

How biased are the unbiased?

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I was reading a post by a young lad who’s tweets I read about a protest he’s visited. The more I read, the more I realised what a raging socialist the lad was – and he didn’t seem to realise it! OK, so its unfair to highlight the naivety of an 18 year old, but its a good example of my point.

In an ideological sense, its impossible to be unbiased.  Everyone is biased in some way.  It comes down tot eh way we are taught as kids.  The concept of right and wrong is a biased viewpoint, so what hope do you have for an unbiased viewpoint! 🙂

However, that is an extreme example.  The practicality is that to be unbiased, you need to demonstrate an equal balance from both sides of a fence.  That is where the problems start.  What if you don’t know how much on one side of the fence you really are?

If you are a socialist, and agree with the idea that everyone should be treated equally, regardless of ability, then how do you view a subject matter that demonstrates the folly of socialism?  How do you view the destructive nature of strikes?

On the other hand, what if you were an unconfirmed racist? How do you view economic migrants? Do you just see the colour of their skins, or do you see the benefot they are brining into the country?  On the other hand, if you see the damage they cause to the home market, does it get blamed on your racist views?

There is nothing wrong with being bias – as long as its declared.

Me? I hate people who are bigoted. This can include socialists, religious and one issue extremists, anyone who is anti anything or want others to change their behaviour.

That is where you know where you stand with open minded people – at least they know they are biased!

 

Written by f0ul

November 6, 2010 at 8:59 pm

Posted in politics

How Dangerous is Alcohol?

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Recently, Professor Nutt, released a report, stating that Alcohol was more dangerous than Heroin, which hit the media for six!

The question is how dangerous is alcohol?  The reason we ask the question is we’ve seen Trainspotting, and know that Heroin kills, but everyone drinks alcohol, but they don’t all drop dead!

The science bit shows that people who die of Alcohol poisoning will tend to have more than 0.05% alcohol in their blood.  To get that sort of figure, you would need to drink 24 units of alcohol in around an hour or so.

In real terms, that would be a bottle of Vodka or 12 pints of beer, or 4 bottles of wine drunk in an hour or two.

So how about all the other drugs?  How dangerous are they?

Guess I’m going to have to read up because I don’t plan to do a practical test!

Written by f0ul

November 4, 2010 at 12:02 am

Posted in Uncategorized

5 Best Roads in North Wales?

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So you finally got on your bike and got yourself to North Wales, and you want to know where to ride?  Let me give you some hints!  I have my favourites, but you might have a different idea of a good road.  Whatever it is, there is one in North Wales!

There are more than 5 great roads in North Wales!  However, to make life easier, here are a list in no paticular order of some of the best ones!

A5 – Chirk to Bangor.

A470 Llandudno to Builth Wells

A483 – Wrexham to Newtown

A525 – Ruthin to Wrexham

A541 Mold to Denbigh

Are these the best roads?

Actually no!  The VERY best roads are a highly guarded secret, but if you want a hint of where to find them – just chose a road BETWEEN any of these roads above!

Enough of a clue for you?

Written by f0ul

October 16, 2010 at 5:00 pm

Posted in Motorbikes

Do you look forward or backward at life?

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Realised something interesting the other day.  People who feel down more often than up tend to look at the future with dread.  Is this you?

If something new is about to happen – do you grab it with hope of a great time, or do you think something is going to go wrong?

When something bad has happened, do you put a line under it and look at the future, or do you just spend your time rewriting the past to make things better?

You decide which works for you!

Written by f0ul

October 15, 2010 at 10:10 pm

Posted in Personal